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Enhanced global storm surges by tropical cyclone poleward migration
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Summary
Global storm surge risk has increased 20% since 1982 due to changing tropical cyclone activity. Poleward migration and intensification of storms amplify coastal threats, linked to human-caused global warming.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Meteorology
Background:
- Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges present escalating threats to coastal areas worldwide.
- The long-term changes in storm surge evolution, driven by shifting tropical cyclone characteristics, are not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the global long-term evolution of tropical cyclone-induced storm surges.
- To identify key drivers of storm surge changes in response to evolving tropical cyclone activity.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive global analysis of storm surge data from 1982 to 2024.
- Statistical decomposition to attribute changes in storm surge to specific tropical cyclone characteristics.
Main Results:
- Global tropical cyclone-induced storm surge increased by 20% from 1982-2024, with significant rises in both hemispheres.
- Poleward migration of tropical cyclone activity was identified as a primary driver of amplified storm surge.
- Intensification of major cyclones and increased size of weak cyclones also contributed to enhanced surge risk.
Conclusions:
- Changes in tropical cyclone activity, particularly poleward migration, are linked to human-induced global warming.
- These findings underscore the connection between climate change, tropical cyclone behavior, and coastal flood risks.
- Incorporating evolving tropical cyclone activity is crucial for accurate climate projections and coastal risk assessment.
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