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Updated: Jun 3, 2026

Wind Tunnel Experiments to Study Chaparral Crown Fires
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Published on: November 14, 2017

Egress thresholds and wildfire fatalities.

Caitlin R Fong1, Carlo W Broderick1, Max A Moritz2,3

  • 1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|June 1, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Communities with fewer than six nonresidential roads face concentrated wildfire fatalities. Improving road access and evacuation plans can significantly reduce risks for millions living in hazardous areas.

Keywords:
disaster resilienceevacuation vulnerabilityinfrastructure resiliencespatial hazard assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Public Policy
  • Urban Planning

Background:

  • Wildfire fatalities are a significant public policy concern.
  • Road access (egress routes) is assumed to impact fatalities, but its critical threshold is unquantified.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Quantify the relationship between egress routes and wildfire fatalities.
  • Identify communities at high risk due to limited road access and wildfire hazard.

Main Methods:

  • Assembled community-level wildfire fatality data for the United States.
  • Integrated data with nationally consistent community egress information.
  • Mapped small communities (<50,000 residents) to identify risk confluence.

Main Results:

  • Fatalities sharply concentrate in communities with very few exits (less than six nonresidential roads).
  • 17.7 million people reside in communities below this critical egress threshold.
  • 2.5 million people in these communities face high wildfire hazard, with hotspots in the Western US, Oklahoma, Florida, and Hawai'i.

Conclusions:

  • Limited road egress significantly amplifies wildfire fatality risk.
  • Targeted infrastructure investment and improved evacuation strategies are crucial for resilience.
  • Climate change and development will increase the number of at-risk communities.