Supervised satellite classification and field validation document endangered Acropora collapse, and identify
Lisa Greer1, Raja Das2, Harris Foad2
1Department of Earth and Environmental Geoscience, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, VA, USA. greerl@wlu.edu.
Scientific Reports
|June 2, 2026
Summary
Endangered Acropora corals in Belize experienced over 90% decline, even in historically protected areas. Satellite imaging and field validation identified new survivors, offering hope for conservation efforts.
Area of Science:
- Marine Biology
- Coral Reef Ecology
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Acropora cervicornis and Acropora palmata are critical reef-building corals in the Caribbean.
- These species have suffered drastic declines exceeding 90% in recent decades.
- Coral Gardens, Belize, a historical refugium, experienced mass mortality in 2023.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess if localized coral loss at a monitoring site reflects broader regional trends.
- To develop and validate a remote sensing method for tracking Acropora spp. populations.
- To identify potential refugia and surviving populations of endangered Acropora.
Main Methods:
- Developed a supervised Random Tree classification model using satellite imagery.
- Identified spectral signatures of Acropora spp. to predict live coral cover.
- Compared model predictions (2011-2023) with field data (2012-2025) and conducted field validation in 2025.
Main Results:
- Model predicted over 90% decline in live Acropora spp. from 2011 to 2023, aligning with field observations.
- Field validation confirmed live or recently dead Acropora at 28 of 42 predicted sites.
- Discovered live colonies at 16 previously undocumented locations.
Conclusions:
- The developed methodology effectively monitors shallow-water Acropora spp. and locates survivors.
- Even historically persistent coral refugia are highly vulnerable to environmental changes.
- Findings highlight the urgent need for conservation strategies for endangered Acropora species.
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