Vulnerability of fishery resources to climate change in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ecosystem off Peru

The Tropical Eastern Pacific Ecosystem off Peru sustains important fisheries that contribute 12% of the annual fisheries landings of Peru, the world's third-largest marine fisheries producer by catch volume. Although climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region, species-specific vulnerability to climate change remains unclear. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment using expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 35 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055. Ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 12 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. No species were assessed as having "very high" vulnerability, five species were ranked with "high" vulnerability, 17 species with "medium" vulnerability, and 13 species with "low" vulnerability. The benthic group, particularly bivalves, were ranked the most vulnerable. The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable, with sharks amongst the most vulnerable. The demersal group was estimated with the lowest vulnerability. Temperature, primary productivity, salinity, pH, and chlorophyll were the principal drivers of exposure. This study allowed estimation of the most vulnerable fishery resources and the main exposure factors driving vulnerability, and detection of research and monitoring priorities in the region, which may be helpful to fisheries managers in developing climate change adaptation options and mitigation alternatives in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ecosystem off Peru.