Projected habitat contraction of Camellia japonica under climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling

The impact of climate change on the distribution of Camellia japonica, an economically important ornamental shrub, is a critical concern for conservation. This study aims to explore its potential geographic distribution under climate change in China.

We used 56 carefully screened and spatially thinned occurrence records in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. After filtering for multicollinearity, ten environmental variables were retained. Future projections were made for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s.

The model showed high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.958). Temperature factors, particularly Bio6 and Bio2, were the main determinants. Under current conditions, highly suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in eastern coastal regions. Future projections indicate a severe contraction of suitable habitats by the 2070s, with reductions of 80.1% and 90.9% under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively.

The findings suggest a severe habitat contraction for wild C. japonica populations under future climate scenarios, with limited evidence of a range shift. This highlights their vulnerability and the urgent need for targeted, spatially explicit conservation strategies.