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Heating the land cools the eastern and equatorial Pacific.

Moritz Günther^1,2, Sarah M Kang¹, Yohai Kaspi²

¹Climate Dynamics Department, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany.

Science Advances

|June 3, 2026

Summary

The land-sea heating contrast drives Pacific cooling. Amplifying this contrast with carbon dioxide (CO2) over land causes transient cooling, offering insights into climate dynamics.

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Area of Science:

Climate Dynamics
Atmospheric Science
Oceanography

Background:

Recent multidecadal cooling in the eastern Pacific presents a significant climate dynamics puzzle.
The future trajectory of this cooling trend remains uncertain, impacting climate predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the land-sea heating contrast as a potential driver of eastern Pacific cooling.
To explore the mechanisms behind transient Pacific cooling using climate modeling.

Main Methods:

Utilized a global coupled climate model to simulate amplified land-sea heating contrast.
Quadrupled land-based carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to test the hypothesis.
Conducted targeted simulations with localized CO2 increases over different land regions.

Main Results:

Amplifying the land-sea heating contrast induced pronounced transient cooling in the eastern and equatorial Pacific.
A 1% annual CO2 increase over land simulated decadal cooling, aligning with observed trends.
Identified northward ITCZ shift, westward Pacific convection shift, and strengthened subtropical highs as key cooling drivers.

Conclusions:

The land-sea heating contrast is a significant driver of transient Pacific cooling.
The ocean dynamical thermostat acts as a feedback, not a primary driver, in this cooling phenomenon.
Findings enhance understanding and prediction of Pacific temperature patterns.