Carbon risk and corporate supply chain resilience

In the dual context of global climate governance and supply chain reconfiguration, carbon risk has emerged as a critical element influencing company competitiveness. However, existing research has predominantly focused on the internal economic consequences of carbon risk (e.g., investment, financing, and financial performance) while neglecting its impacts on inter-firm supply chain relationships. Furthermore, empirical evidence on this topic in emerging economies under stringent carbon regulations remains particularly scarce, and the relative importance of different transmission mechanisms has not been quantified. This research empirically investigates the impact and mechanism of carbon risk on corporate supply chain resilience. Using Chinese A-share listed companies between 2012 and 2022, the study finds that carbon risk significantly reduces supply chain resilience.The mechanism analysis shows that the carbon risk undermines the supply chain resilience by raising the environmental uncertainty, degrading the internal controls, and increasing the financial risk. The Karlson-Holm-Breen (KHB) method shows that environmental uncertainty is the main mediating path. The results of the moderation analysis show that information asymmetry and financing constraints exacerbate the negative effect of carbon risk on supply chain resilience, while green innovation effectively mitigates this negative effect.The results of the moderated mediation study suggest that green innovation negatively moderates the positive effect of carbon risk on environmental uncertainty. The moderating effect diminishes nonlinearly as green innovation escalates. Specifically, when green innovation is low, the indirect effect of carbon risk on supply chain resilience through environmental uncertainty is significantly negative; however, when green innovation is high, this indirect effect becomes insignificant. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the negative effects of carbon risk on supply chain resilience are more significant for firms that are non-state-owned, smaller, belong to heavily polluting industries, or have high supply chain concentration.The findings deepen the knowledge of the economic consequences of carbon risk while providing valuable insights for firms optimizing supply chain resource allocation in low-carbon transitions.