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Delayed Arousal Response to Sleep Apnea Encodes Mortality
Jiahao Fan1, M Brandon Westover2, Yue Leng3
1Department of Neurology, McGovern Medical School, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|June 4, 2026
Summary
Delayed arousal timing after sleep apnea events is linked to increased mortality risk. This finding suggests that arousal dynamics offer prognostic information beyond traditional obstructive sleep apnea severity metrics.
Area of Science:
- Sleep Medicine
- Cardiovascular Health
- Mortality Research
Background:
- Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity is typically measured by the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI).
- Current metrics may not fully capture neurophysiologic responses to respiratory events during sleep.
- The prognostic value of post-event arousal dynamics in OSA is not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between post-apnea/hypopnea arousal dynamics and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.
- To determine if arousal timing provides prognostic information beyond established OSA severity measures.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of polysomnography data from 8,053 adults across four cohorts.
- Derived peak time (PT), peak height (PH), and area under the curve (AUC) from arousal probability histograms.
- Used multivariable Cox models and meta-analysis to assess associations with mortality.
Main Results:
- Delayed peak time (PT) in arousal response was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality in both males and females.
- Each 1-second delay in PT correlated with higher mortality risk, independent of AHI and other factors.
- Associations were primarily observed during non-rapid eye movement sleep and persisted after adjusting for OSA severity and hypoxic burden.
Conclusions:
- Delayed arousal timing following respiratory events in OSA is an independent predictor of increased mortality.
- Event-level arousal timing offers valuable prognostic information that complements traditional OSA severity metrics.
- This highlights the importance of considering neurophysiologic responses in OSA risk assessment.
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