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Consent-based laws and aggregate fertility.
1Research Institute for Industrial Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden.
Journal of Health Economics
|June 4, 2026
Summary
New sexual assault laws focusing on consent reduce fertility by 4% due to fewer couples forming and more abortions. This impacts sexual behavior and contraceptive use across age groups.
Area of Science:
- Socioeconomics
- Public Health
- Legal Studies
Background:
- Legal definitions of sexual assault vary significantly across jurisdictions.
- Understanding the societal impacts of evolving sexual assault legislation is crucial for public policy.
- Previous research has not fully explored the link between consent-based laws and reproductive behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causal relationship between the expansion of legal definitions of sexual assault to include tacit consent and subsequent changes in fertility rates.
- To analyze the behavioral mechanisms, including sexual behavior and couple formation, that mediate the impact of consent-based legislation on fertility.
- To assess the implications of consent-based legislation for legal proceedings and societal risk perceptions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a panel data analysis of European countries to examine the effect of switching to tacit consent-based sexual assault legislation.
- Employed econometric models to identify changes in fertility, couple formation, and abortion rates.
- Conducted a qualitative analysis of Swedish appeals court verdicts post-legislation adoption to assess legal challenges.
Main Results:
- A 4% reduction in fertility rates was observed following the adoption of tacit consent-based sexual assault laws.
- The decline in fertility is attributed to decreased couple formation and increased abortion rates.
- Behavioral shifts include increased risk aversion in partner markets, varied contraceptive use by age, and decreased condom use among young men.
Conclusions:
- The adoption of consent-based sexual assault legislation has a significant negative impact on fertility rates.
- Behavioral adjustments, driven by risk perceptions and precautionary measures in relationships, explain the observed fertility decline.
- Challenges in legally assessing tacit consent were identified, suggesting potential complexities in enforcement and societal adaptation.
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