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Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
Published on: May 31, 2020
Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV)
Valentina Marziano1,2, Alfredo De Bellis1,2, Martina Del Manso3
1Center for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
None:
We simulated the potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV) following the introduction of a single infectious individual in a generic population, based on epidemiological parameters derived from a human-to-human historical outbreak. Under current available evidence, our analyses suggest that, within 4 months from the index case's symptom onset, the expected outbreak size is unlikely to exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of epidemic extinction, particularly when > 50% cases are effectively isolated from the start of the outbreak.
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