Within day temperature variation and pediatric asthma exacerbation in Philadelphia, PA

Climate change intensifies temperature extremes, increasing daily variations between high and low temperatures (intraday temperature variation). These variations can influence environmental exposures, such as ambient air pollution and pollen, and indoor behaviors, including heating use, potentially elevating asthma exacerbation risk. Neighborhood context may modify these effects, particularly in disinvested or racially segregated areas where adaptive capacity is limited.

We conducted a case-crossover study using conditional logistic regressions to estimate associations between intraday temperature variation and asthma exacerbations among children in Philadelphia, PA (2011-2016). Cases were identified from electronic health records at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Analyses were stratified by season: Spring/Summer (March-August) and Fall/Winter (October-February). We assessed nonlinear and lagged (up to 7 days) effects, defining reference thresholds as 4 °F for Spring/Summer and 3 °F for Fall/Winter. Models were further stratified by present-day racialized economic segregation and historical redlining.

In Spring/Summer, greater intraday temperature variation on lag day 4 was associated with increased odds of asthma exacerbation (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.08-1.34). In Fall/Winter, greater variation was associated with decreased odds (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.68-0.98). No statistically significant effect modification was observed by segregation or redlining.

Intraday temperature variation was associated with pediatric asthma exacerbations, with stronger adverse effects during warmer months. These findings highlight the importance of addressing temperature variation in public health and clinical strategies aimed at protecting children with asthma in a changing climate.