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Broadly quantifying SSP elements for 188 countries to 2150 in International Futures.
Jonathan D Moyer1, Barry B Hughes2, Mohammod Irfan2
1Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, Denver, CO, USA. jmoyer@du.edu.
Nature Communications
|June 5, 2026
Summary
This study quantifies Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the International Futures model, projecting socioeconomic indicators to 2150. Findings reveal broader factors influencing lower economic growth and resource demand, aiding climate change adaptation and mitigation research.
Area of Science:
- Socioeconomic modeling
- Climate change scenarios
- Integrated assessment
Background:
- Existing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) quantification has limitations in narrative alignment, model integration, indicator scope, and temporal depth.
- Projections often lack a comprehensive view of interconnected socioeconomic factors influencing long-term development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To extend the quantification of SSP narratives by projecting 188 socioeconomic indicators for 188 countries to 2150.
- To address limitations in current SSP quantification, including model integration and temporal scope.
- To provide a foundation for connecting SSPs with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the International Futures (IFs) model for integrated projections of socioeconomic indicators.
- Projected 188 variables across demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance.
- Ensured full integration of variables within the modeling framework.
Main Results:
- Projections show high correlation with existing forecasts but indicate lower economic growth due to broader factors.
- Identified conflict, governance, infrastructure, and human development as key drivers influencing economic growth and resource demand.
- Introduced sector-specific government spending measures for enhanced analysis.
Conclusions:
- The integrated modeling approach provides a more robust quantification of SSPs, extending projections into the 22nd century.
- Broader socioeconomic factors significantly impact economic growth and resource demand, with implications for climate change.
- The developed government spending measures can link SSPs to theoretical frameworks for climate action.
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