Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 7, 2026
An Obstructive Chronic Pancreatitis Model Established Through Electrocoagulation
Published on: October 31, 2025
A prognostic model based on integrated clinical indicators for recurrent acute pancreatitis in patients with
Junyan An1, Gaoyuan Zhang2, Xinling Zhou3
1Department of Gastroenterology, Weifang People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong, 261000, China.
Background:
Recurrence after a first episode of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTG-AP) remains common, whereas admission-time prediction models are still limited. We aimed to identify independent predictors of 3-year recurrence and develop a practical nomogram for early risk assessment.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients with first-episode HTG-AP admitted between January 2019 and January 2023. Clinical variables, laboratory indices obtained within 24 h of admission, and CT-derived skeletal muscle density (SMD) were collected. All patients had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. Candidate variables were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, followed by multivariable logistic regression to identify independent predictors of recurrence. A nomogram was constructed and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration, bootstrap validation, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Sensitivity analyses included ln(CRP + 1) adjustment and Fine-Gray regression.
Results:
A total of 278 patients were included in the primary logistic regression cohort, of whom 82 (29.5%) developed recurrence within 3 years. Higher triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index (OR 5.027, 95% CI 2.599-9.723, P < 0.001) and smoking history (OR 2.358, 95% CI 1.149-4.838, P = 0.019) were independent risk factors, whereas higher SMD (OR 0.868, 95% CI 0.821-0.917, P < 0.001) and albumin (OR 0.866, 95% CI 0.801-0.936, P < 0.001) were protective factors. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.896, and remained stable after bootstrap validation (AUC 0.891). Calibration, DCA, CRP-adjusted analysis, and Fine-Gray regression supported model performance and robustness.
Conclusions:
A nomogram integrating TyG, SMD, albumin, and smoking history showed good performance for predicting 3-year recurrence after first-episode HTG-AP and may support early risk stratification and individualized follow-up.
More Related Videos
07:38Preparing a Mice Model of Severe Acute Pancreatitis via a Combination of Caerulein and Lipopolysaccharide Intraperitoneal Injection
Published on: May 10, 2024
03:07Development and Validation of a Methodology for Establishing Obese Rat Models with Typical Fatty Pancreas
Published on: November 11, 2025
Related Concept Videos
01:30Acute Pancreatitis II: Clinical Manifestations and Management
01:25Acute Pancreatitis I: Introduction
01:27Acute Pancreatitis I: Introduction
Acute pancreatitis is characterized by rapid inflammation of the pancreas, often caused by factors like gallstone blockage or excessive alcohol consumption. Chronic pancreatitis, on the other hand, is a slow, progressive inflammation that may result from long-term alcohol abuse, obstructions in the pancreatic duct, or genetic factors.
The causes of acute pancreatitis include:
01:29Chronic Pancreatitis II: Collaborative Care
Assessment:
01:25Chronic Pancreatitis I: Introduction
01:24Chronic Pancreatitis I: Introduction
Pancreatitis is the inflammation of the pancreas, which occurs when the immune system becomes active and causes swelling, pain, and disruptions in organ function. Pancreatitis can manifest as either an acute or chronic condition.
Acute pancreatitis arises suddenly and lasts for a brief duration, while chronic pancreatitis is a long-term affliction...