High stakes: how legal cannabis pricing impacts the illicit market

Although nearly 80% of Americans reside in a county with a legal, regulated cannabis dispensary, the majority of cannabis consumed in the U.S. is still obtained from unregulated, illicit sources. Illicit cannabis carries greater health risks and is generally less preferred than regulated cannabis, yet its lower price makes it attractive to many customers. However, comparative research on price differentials between the legal and illicit markets across states is scarce. Establishing cannabis price benchmarks is essential to ensure that legal markets are competitively priced and can effectively displace the illicit trade.

We used crowdsourced data from PriceofWeed.com to estimate the cost of illicit cannabis in 2018-2024 and data from state government websites to estimate the cost of legal cannabis in Colorado, Oregon, California, Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, Maine, and Connecticut. We compared illicit prices by recreational dispensary status in all 50 states and D.C. and examined legal vs. illicit prices within the eight aforementioned recreational states.

The median price per gram of illicit cannabis was significantly lower in recreational states, compared to non-recreational states ($7.10 vs. $8.90, p < 0.001). While illicit and legal prices were not significantly different over the entire study period, there were significant differences within years and within states. In Colorado, California, and Michigan, legal cannabis was significantly less expensive than illicit cannabis, while in Massachusetts, Illinois, Maine, and Connecticut, illicit cannabis was significantly less expensive than legal cannabis.

We saw lower illicit market prices in states with recreational dispensaries. Our results suggest that the price ranking of legal versus illicit cannabis within a given state differs depending on the state's recreational market maturity, with states with older markets - all of which also had more flexible licensing policies - having a legal cannabis price advantage.