Community preferences and expectations for end-of-life management strategies of wind farms: A prospective study

In this study, we examined resident preferences for prospective end-of-life management of a coastal wind farm in Japan through a case study of an 11-turbine, 22 MW installation, based on a questionnaire survey of 218 households within a 4 km radius. Respondents were presented with four disposition options: repowering with unchanged capacity (56.9%), repowering with increased capacity (18.8%), decommissioning (15.1%), and lifespan extension (9.2%). Preferences were examined through perceptual, attitudinal, and demographic lenses, though inferential support remained limited across several predictors. Descriptively, negative impressions were concentrated among decommissioning proponents, yet inferential testing showed no significant predictive effect for visual or acoustic evaluations. Principal component analysis consolidated perceptual dimensions, and binary logistic regression indicated that disaster-risk cognition alone significantly predicted support for active reconstruction, whereas mitigation measures and noise annoyance were statistically non-significant. Analysis of variance followed by Tukey's honestly significant difference post-hoc tests revealed significant yet modest differences in expectations for post-operational attributes-such as landscape harmony, tourism attraction, information transparency, proper explanations, and blade length-across preference groups, though effect sizes remained limited. No demographic or geographic variables were significantly associated with end-of-life preferences, indicating limited explanatory power of conventional socio-spatial characteristics. These findings highlight the limited role of demographic determinants and the importance of disaster-risk cognition and procedural fairness in shaping wind farm end-of-life strategies. They also underscore the need to incorporate local perspectives into policy frameworks through transparent communication, locally adaptive mitigation, and sustained stakeholder engagement.