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Merging behavior under varying work zone sign scenarios: A heterogeneity-based analysis
Xintong Yan1, Yuanchang Xie1, Zubin Bhuyan1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Lowell, 1 University Avenue, Lowell, MA 01854, United States.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|June 7, 2026
Summary
Understanding vehicle merging behavior at highway work zones is key for safety. This study shows that different flashing speed limit signs (FSLS) and portable changeable message signs (PCMS) impact merging, requiring tailored safety strategies.
Area of Science:
- Traffic Engineering
- Road Safety
- Human Factors in Transportation
Background:
- Work zone safety relies on proper vehicle merging behavior.
- Understanding factors influencing merging under various traffic control scenarios is crucial for effective safety strategies.
- Existing research needs to account for specific interactions between different traffic control devices.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate vehicle merging behaviors at highway work zones under different flashing speed limit sign (FSLS) and portable changeable message sign (PCMS) scenarios.
- To identify key traffic and environmental factors influencing merging behaviors across diverse sign configurations.
- To analyze how scenario-specific variations affect the prediction of merging behaviors.
Main Methods:
- Utilized random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances.
- Incorporated real-world data from radar, thermal cameras, and meteorological sensors.
- Defined three categories of merging behavior: risky, somewhat risky, and safe, as outcome variables.
Main Results:
- The determinants of merging behaviors significantly vary across different FSLS and PCMS scenarios.
- Ignoring scenario interactions can lead to systematic prediction bias in safety models.
- Simultaneous visual stimuli from FSLS and PCMS may increase driver cognitive load, impacting merging decisions.
Conclusions:
- Accounting for scenario-specific variations is essential for accurately identifying precursors and forecasting merging behaviors.
- PCMS message design should consider potential interactions with FSLS to avoid driver overload.
- Adapting traffic control strategies to environmental conditions, like weather and time of day, can promote safer merging.
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