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Assessing the Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in Iranian Children Under Five: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Amirhesam Moosazadeh1, Babak Eshrati1,2, Ebrahim Babaee2

  • 1Vaccine Research Center Iran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran.

Health Science Reports
|June 8, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Iran

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

  • Rotavirus is a major cause of severe diarrhea in children globally.
  • Iran implemented the pentavalent oral Rotasiil vaccine in 2024.
  • Agent-based modeling (ABM) is used to assess vaccine impact.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the epidemiological impact of Rotasiil vaccine in Iran.
  • To model rotavirus transmission dynamics in urban and rural settings.
  • To quantify reductions in rotavirus incidence and disease burden.

Main Methods:

  • An agent-based model (ABM) simulated rotavirus transmission in children under five.
  • Vaccination scenarios with 98% coverage and 55% seroconversion were applied.
  • Incidence rates and symptomatic days were calculated and compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

Main Results:

  • Vaccination significantly reduced rotavirus incidence by 33.6% in urban and 27.2% in rural areas.
  • Symptomatic days decreased by 33.7% (urban) and 27.3% (rural).
  • Sensitivity analyses confirmed consistent reductions (26%-33%) across different incidence levels.

Conclusions:

  • Rotasiil vaccination is projected to substantially decrease rotavirus burden in Iran.
  • The vaccine is expected to lower incidence, disease duration, and epidemic peaks.
  • Findings support rotavirus vaccination as a critical child health intervention, emphasizing ongoing surveillance.
Abstract

Keywords:
RotasiilRotavirus vaccineagent based modelcontagious diseaseepidemiological modelinginfectious disease

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