Tree Cover and Temperature Shape the Distribution of Epiphytic Pleurozia in Asia: Forest Havens in a Warming Climate

Pleurozia (Pleuroziaceae, Marchantiophyta) is an evolutionarily and ecologically significant genus of epiphytic liverworts, primarily distributed in tropical and subtropical montane forests. However, the effects of climate change on its distribution remain poorly understood. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution patterns of Pleurozia in Asia at both the genus and species levels under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2070). The results revealed that evergreen broadleaf forest cover, temperature variability (annual and diurnal ranges), and altitude were identified as the dominant environmental drivers, indicating that the distribution of Pleurozia is jointly governed by macroclimate and forest-mediated microclimatic buffering. Under current conditions, suitable habitats for Pleurozia are mainly concentrated in tropical and subtropical Asia, with highly suitable habitats closely associated with montane cloud forests, which provide stable and humid microclimates essential for epiphytic bryophytes. Future projections indicate a slight expansion of the total suitable habitat under all scenarios, with the largest extent under SSP1-2.6 and range margins generally extending toward higher latitudes. However, centroid displacement at the genus level remains relatively limited, suggesting that Pleurozia may persist in tropical regions by relying on stable forest habitats and microrefugia. At the species level, all centroids shift northward, but responses differ in spatial pattern, habitat area, and migration distance, indicating divergent distribution dynamics under future climate scenarios. These findings suggest that Pleurozia may retain some resilience under mid- to late-century climate change, but the persistence of its suitable habitats will depend strongly on the stability and continuity of evergreen broadleaf and montane cloud forests as vital "forest havens". This study provides a theoretical basis for understanding the ecological responses of epiphytic bryophytes to climate change and offers valuable insights for biodiversity conservation and sustainable management of tropical and subtropical forest ecosystems.