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Spatial Distribution and Determinants of Fertility in India
Pradeep Deshmukh1, Nishaant Ramasamy1, Priyanka Yadav1
1Department of Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Nagpur, Maharashtra, India.
Summary
India
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Fertility rates in India are declining but show significant regional disparities.
- Understanding spatial patterns of fertility and influencing factors is crucial for effective spatial planning.
- Previous research highlights regional variations in fertility trends across India.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatial patterns of total fertility rates (TFR) in India.
- To identify socioeconomic factors associated with TFR variations across Indian states.
- To examine the spatial distribution of high and low fertility clusters.
Main Methods:
- Ecological study using National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021) state-level data.
- Exploratory spatial data analysis (Moran's I, LISA) to assess spatial autocorrelation and clusters.
- Spatial regression models (OLS, SLM, SEM) to analyze the association between TFR and socioeconomic factors.
Main Results:
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) varied from 1.1 to 3.0 across states (mean 1.81).
- High-fertility clusters identified in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Assam; low-fertility clusters in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
- Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) was the sole significant predictor of TFR, with higher MPI associated with increased fertility.
Conclusions:
- Declining fertility rates in India exhibit distinct regional variations.
- Multidimensional poverty remains a primary driver of increased fertility, underscoring the need for integrated poverty reduction and reproductive health strategies.
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