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Associations of Emotional Divergence in Risk Communication With Forecast Error Type During Typhoon Khanun
1Division of Environmental Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and Technology Pohang South Korea.
Geohealth
|June 10, 2026
Summary
Weather forecast errors impact public emotions differently based on underestimation or overestimation. Understanding this expectation-reality mismatch is key to improving risk communication and public resilience to extreme weather events.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
- Social psychology
- Risk communication
Background:
- Severe weather forecast errors have significant economic and mental health consequences.
- The differential impact of under- or overestimated forecasts on public emotional responses is not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the socio-psychological effects of forecast errors during Typhoon Khanun in the Korean Peninsula.
- To analyze the relationship between spatial discrepancies in precipitation forecasts and public emotional responses.
Main Methods:
- Evaluation of precipitation forecast accuracy using multiple lead hours against observational data.
- Sentiment analysis of over 43,000 online discourses from the NAVER Weather Report Talk platform.
Main Results:
- Precipitation forecasts showed underestimation in eastern/southeastern Korea and overestimation in western/southwestern Korea.
- Forecast overestimation correlated with public anxiety and worry.
- Forecast underestimation correlated with public stress and confusion.
Conclusions:
- The direction of expectation-reality mismatch in weather forecasts significantly influences public emotional responses.
- Improving forecast accuracy can potentially reduce emotional distress and enhance public resilience during extreme weather events.
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