Opportunities to strengthen US phosphorus supply resilience through circular pathways

With diminishing availability of high-quality phosphate rock and increasing supply uncertainties, improving phosphorus (P) recovery, recycling, and waste reduction has become critical for sustaining agricultural production. We developed an integrated P cycling and soil dynamics model to quantify 7 circular strategies for reducing mineral P demand in the United States, using data for 91 major crops and 20 livestock types across 3,142 counties from 1866 to 2050. We show that soil residual P reuse has the largest potential to reduce mineral P demand in the United States. By 2023, total soil P stocks had accumulated to 99 Tg, equivalent to approximately 68% of mineral P inputs over 1866-2023. For 2024-2050, projections under various socioeconomic scenarios indicate that soil residual P reuse alone could potentially supply approximately 2.4 to 5.1 times projected US mineral P demand, with substantial residual P stocks accumulated in both cropland and pastureland soils. Recycling from sewage sludge and livestock and crop by-products could collectively offset an additional approximately 0.5 to 1.0 times mineral P demand, while food waste reduction could reduce requirements by approximately 0.3 times. Spatial analyses further highlight a mismatch between circular P availability and cropland P demand, with high mineral P avoidance potential concentrated in the South and West, but relatively low ratios of circular P supply to projected mineral P demand across most counties in the Midwest. These findings provide spatially explicit and decision-relevant insights into how circular P strategies can enhance the stability and resilience of US food systems under future resource constraints.