Rapid increase in West Siberia's retrogressive thaw slumps since 1964 associated with Arctic winter warming
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Updated: Jun 12, 2026

Removal of Exogenous Materials from the Outer Portion of Frozen Cores to Investigate the Ancient Biological Communities Harbored Inside
Published on: July 3, 2016
Nina Nesterova1,2, Marina Leibman3, Carl Stadie4,5
1Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. nina.nesterova@awi.de.
Abstract:
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are key indicators of permafrost thaw in the West Siberian Arctic. Based on a new high-resolution remote sensing-derived, field-verified inventory of 6168 RTSs for the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, we provide the first large-scale spatio-temporal and climate sensitivity analysis from 1964 until 2024. In Gydan, RTS clusters are located at higher elevations, on rougher terrain, and in lake-rich areas, whereas such associations are weaker in Yamal. Temporal analysis of RTS using historical and modern satellite imagery for key sites (~ 6,103 km2) indicates that RTS numbers increased 23-fold from 1964 to 2024, and initiation rates rose 26-fold. A discrete-time Bayesian hazards model identified summer maximum precipitation as the strongest short-term factor. However, winter warming was the dominant long-term driver, with an increase of + 4.82 K resulting in a 29-pp increase in annual initiation probability. RTS development in the region poses high risks to gas and transport infrastructure.
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