Non-Optimal Temperatures and Global Disease Burden: Retrospective Analysis of 2010-2021 and Projections to 2040

To update global, regional, and national estimates of deaths and DALYs attributable to non-optimal temperatures from 2010 to 2021 and project future burdens to 2040.

GBD 2021 data from 204 countries and territories were used to assess temperature-attributable deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rates, percentage changes, and PAFs by age, sex, SDI, region, and country.

In 2021, high temperatures accounted for 0.54% of global deaths and 0.46% of DALYs, while low temperatures accounted for 2.92% and 1.03%, respectively. Burdens were highest among children under five, older adults, males, and lower-SDI regions. Mortality and DALYs declined in the Caribbean and Haiti but increased in Cabo Verde. Major temperature-related cardiovascular, respiratory, and stroke burdens are projected to decline by 2040.

Non-optimal temperatures remain a major public health threat, requiring integrated climate-health policies and adaptation strategies.