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Role of community and sexual contacts as drivers of MPXV clade I

Hiroaki Murayama1, Toshiaki R Asakura2,3,4, Borame L Dickens5

  • 1School of Medicine, International University of Health and Welfare, Narita, Japan.

Nature Health
|June 11, 2026
PubMed

Insights

New mpox (monkeypox virus) clade Ib outbreaks show sustained human transmission, particularly through sexual contact. Mathematical modeling suggests this transmission route explains increased outbreak potential compared to earlier clades, highlighting the need to protect female sex workers.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Virology

Background:

  • The mpox virus (MPXV) clade Ib outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo exhibits distinct transmission patterns.
  • Previous MPXV clade Ia outbreaks did not show sustained human-to-human transmission or links to sexual contacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the transmission dynamics of the MPXV clade Ib outbreak.
  • To quantify the role of sexual contact versus community contact in MPXV clade Ib transmission.
  • To compare the outbreak potential of MPXV clade Ib with clade Ia.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical modeling incorporating age-dependent contact patterns.
  • Analysis of epidemiological data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
  • Comparative analysis of transmission dynamics between MPXV clades.

Main Results:

  • Sustained human-to-human transmission of MPXV clade Ib was identified.
  • Epidemiological links to sexual contacts, particularly involving female sex workers (FSWs), were established.
  • Frequent sexual interactions were found to significantly contribute to clade Ib's increased outbreak potential compared to clade Ia.

Conclusions:

  • Sexual contact is a critical driver of MPXV clade Ib transmission dynamics.
  • Protecting key populations, such as FSWs, is crucial for controlling MPXV clade Ib outbreaks.
  • Findings emphasize the importance of targeted public health interventions for mpox control.
Keywords:
EpidemiologyViral infection

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