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Predictive value of aortic propagation velocity for cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals with elevated

Leila Bigdelu1, Mostafa Ahmadi2, Bahram Shahri3

  • 1Vascular and Endovascular Surgery Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences , Mashhad , Iran.

Scientific Reports
|June 11, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Aortic propagation velocity (APV) may help predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in high-risk patients. Lower APV levels were associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) over one year.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Diagnostic Imaging
  • Vascular Physiology

Background:

  • Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction remains a significant clinical challenge.
  • Aortic propagation velocity (APV), an echocardiographic index, shows potential for CVD risk assessment.
  • Limited research exists on APV's prognostic value in high-risk populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between APV and the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with an elevated ASCVD score.
  • To determine a potential cut-off value for APV in predicting MACE.
  • To evaluate APV as an adjunctive prognostic marker for CVD risk.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective cohort study involving 60 patients with ASCVD score > 10.
  • Echocardiography was performed to measure APV, categorizing patients into normal (>56 cm/s) and abnormal (≤56 cm/s) groups.
  • Follow-up for 1 year to record MACE (non-fatal MI, stroke, revascularization, or cardiovascular death).
  • Logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were employed for statistical evaluation.

Main Results:

  • Seven patients developed MACE within the 1-year follow-up period.
  • A significantly higher rate of MACE was observed in the abnormal APV group (6 cases) compared to the normal APV group (1 case) (p=0.039).
  • Logistic regression indicated a significant relationship between decreased APV and MACE development (OR=2.10 per 10 cm/s decrease).
  • ROC analysis suggested a cut-off APV of 49.75 cm/s for MACE prediction (AUC=0.710).

Conclusions:

  • APV demonstrates a trend towards prognostic value for MACE in high-risk individuals.
  • Abnormal APV may serve as a potential adjunctive marker for cardiovascular risk stratification.
  • Larger prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings and establish APV's role in clinical practice.

Keywords:
ASCVD risk scoreAortic propagation velocity (APV)Echocardiography

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