Temporal and spatial changes of ecosystem services and their influencing factors in Shule River Basin

In this study, the water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage and habitat quality of Shule River Basin were simulated by using InVEST model. Using the method of cold hot spot analysis, the spatial variation characteristics of four ecosystem services in Shule River Basin were revealed. Finally, the dominant and interactive factors of water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage and habitat quality were explored based on the geodetector model. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) The simulation results showed that the four types of ecosystem services except soil conservation and habitat quality in the Shule River Basin increased to varying degrees during 1980-2020. Water yield increased from 1.9314 × 10⁹ m³ to 5.2143 × 10⁹ m³, an increase of 3.2829 × 10⁹ m³; Soil retention decreased from 5.9453 × 10⁹ t to 5.8708 × 10⁹ t, decreased by 7.4567 × 10⁶ t. Carbon storage increased from 9.4266 × 10⁹ t to 9.5157 × 10⁹ t, an increase of 8.9090 × 10⁶ t; The habitat quality index decreased by 0.0013 from 0.1711 to 0.1698. (2) Ecosystem services show significant spatial differentiation. The cold spots and general areas of ecosystem services are concentrated in the wasteland in the northwest and north of the study area, and the hot spots are mainly distributed in the high-altitude mountains in the southeast and southwest of the study area. (3) Annual precipitation (q = 0.5668), potential evapotranspiration (q = 0.5497) and elevation (q = 0.5471) had great influence on the spatial differentiation of Water yield services, and the explanatory power was more than 50%. It is slope that plays a leading role in influencing the spatial distribution of soil conservation services. The main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ecosystem services are land use, climate and topography, while the population and social economy have relatively little influence on the spatial differentiation of ecosystem services.