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Assessing Habitat Suitability and Climate-Change Responses of Raptors in Hunan Province, China, Using Ensemble
Yufeng Zeng1, Zongze Zhou2, Hao Meng1
1Institute of Wildlife Conservation, College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China.
Animals : an Open Access Journal From MDPI
|June 12, 2026
Summary
Raptor populations in Hunan Province face habitat loss due to climate change and human activity. Mountainous regions are crucial for their survival, requiring targeted conservation efforts for these sensitive bird species.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Avian Ecology
Background:
- Raptors, as high-trophic-level species, are sensitive indicators of environmental change.
- Subtropical China lacks comprehensive assessments of raptor habitat suitability and climate change impacts.
- Hunan Province's diverse landscapes offer potential for varied raptor communities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess current raptor habitat suitability in Hunan Province.
- To identify key environmental factors influencing raptor distribution.
- To project future habitat changes under different climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized biomod2 ensemble species distribution models with raptor survey data (2022-2023).
- Analyzed 39 raptor species, focusing on 22 species-season combinations.
- Evaluated model performance using AUC and TSS metrics.
Main Results:
- Dominant predictors included temperature seasonality, Human Footprint Index, precipitation, and NDVI.
- Current highly suitable habitats cover 30.81% of Hunan, concentrated in mountainous areas.
- Future projections show significant habitat contraction, especially under high-emission scenarios, with concentration at higher elevations.
Conclusions:
- Mountain regions are critical for raptor conservation in Hunan.
- Climate change and human footprint significantly threaten raptor habitats.
- A spatial framework for climate-adaptive raptor conservation is essential.
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