The Prognostic Value of Circulating Tumor DNA for Clinical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Cell...

Relapse remains the leading cause of treatment failure following hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematologic malignancies. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has emerged as a promising minimally invasive biomarker for measurable residual disease (MRD) assessment and early relapse detection; however, the prognostic significance of ctDNA in the post-transplant setting has not been comprehensively synthesized. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with PRISMA guidelines and registered the protocol in PROSPERO (CRD420261392100). PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, EBSCO, Cochrane CENTRAL, and supplementary sources were searched through November 2025. Eligible studies evaluated tumor-specific ctDNA or tumor-informed/tumor-associated cfDNA in patients undergoing allogeneic or autologous HCT for hematologic malignancies. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed for relapse/progression, overall survival (OS), and relapse-free/progression-free survival (RFS/PFS). Studies evaluating total cfDNA quantity, methylation-based cfDNA profiling, cfRNA, or chimerism-only monitoring were synthesized narratively. Ten observational cohort studies comprising 883 patients met inclusion criteria. Across acute leukemias, lymphomas, multiple myeloma, and myelodysplastic syndromes, ctDNA/cfDNA positivity was consistently associated with adverse outcomes. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) for relapse or disease progression was 12.57 (95% CI: 4.59-34.46; p < 0.001), while pooled HRs were 7.45 (95% CI: 4.11-13.48; p < 0.001) for OS and 4.46 (95% CI: 2.22-8.97; p < 0.001) for RFS/PFS. Although statistical heterogeneity was low, interpretation was limited by the relatively small number of studies contributing to each pooled endpoint. Narrative evidence additionally suggested that broader circulating nucleic acid approaches may provide complementary information regarding graft-versus-host disease, infection, and other post-transplant complications. Tumor-specific ctDNA positivity is consistently associated with increased relapse risk and inferior survival outcomes following HCT. These findings support further investigation of ctDNA-based MRD monitoring as a promising non-invasive biomarker for post-transplant molecular surveillance and risk stratification. However, prospective multicenter validation studies, assay standardization, and ctDNA-guided interventional trials remain necessary before routine clinical implementation can be recommended.