Appearance of Pancreas Predictive of Cancer Presence: Utility of Computed Tomography Volumetry

Pancreatic cancer (PC) should be diagnosed in its early stages. Therefore, it is necessary to identify high-risk individuals of PC.

Between 2001 and 2017, 1542 PC cases were diagnosed at two tertial care institutions. Of these, 117 cases had undergone abdominal contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) 1-10 years before PC diagnosis and were classified as the PC group. Meanwhile, 43,102 cases underwent abdominal CE-CT for close examination of non-pancreatic diseases in the same period, of which 1170 were randomly selected. Of these, 117 cases were matched to the PC group with the propensity score and designated the non-PC group. Pancreatic volumetry was performed using the 3D image analysis system for abdominal CE-CT in both groups and various measurements were compared. In PC group, CE-CT taken 1-10 years before the onset of PC was analyzed.

After propensity score matching, baseline characteristics did not significantly differ between the two groups. The whole pancreatic volume/body surface area (BSA) (p = 0.014), volume of main pancreatic duct (MPD) plus cystic lesion/BSA (p < 0.001), volume of pancreatic parenchyma/BSA (p = 0.002), ratio of cross-sectional areas (p = 0.033), and MPD diameter/BSA (p < 0.001) significantly differed between the two groups. In subgroup analysis of patients without cystic lesions, the whole pancreatic volume/BSA, volume of MPD/BSA, volume of pancreatic parenchyma/BSA, ratio of cross-sectional areas, and MPD diameter/BSA significantly differed between the two groups.

Pancreatic volumetry could identify patients at high risk of PC.