Ground Truth-Based Evaluation of False Discovery Rate and Statistical Power in DIA Proteomics

Data-independent acquisition (DIA) mass spectrometry enables rapid proteomic quantification, yet the reliability of statistical inference in DIA-based protein quantification remains incompletely understood. Here, we systematically evaluated missingness, false discovery rate (FDR), and statistical power, defined as true positive rate (i.e. sensitivity or recall), using technical replicates and a spike-in benchmark with known ground truth. Analysis of 18 HeLa replicates revealed persistent, abundance-dependent missingness. In the spike-in experiment with five replicates, human peptides were titrated against a stable yeast background, allowing fold changes (FCs) to be compared with expected values. Across comparisons with log2FCs ranging from 0.2 to 2.5, the nominal BH-FDR substantially underestimated the true FDR. For example, at a BH-FDR threshold of 0.05, the true FDR was ~0.2. Statistical power was ~40% for a log2FC of 0.2 and increased to nearly 100% for a log2FC of 2.5. Additional incorporation of FC thresholds improved the true FDR for large-FC comparisons, with slight loss of power, but markedly reduced sensitivity for small-FC comparisons. Together, these results indicate that nominal FDR does not necessarily reflect actual error rates in DIA proteomics and that DIA performance is influenced by protein abundance and expected fold changes. This study provides a framework for experimental design and data interpretation in DIA-based proteomic studies.