Modeling Aleatoric Uncertainty in Cardiac MRI Segmentation: Probabilistic Detection and Contour Regression

Accurate segmentation of cardiac MRI is essential for assessment of cardiac function through biomarkers such as the left and right ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, RVEF). Although AI methods have achieved high average segmentation accuracy, the precision of biomarkers for individual patients-quantified by estimation variance, remains critical for reliable diagnosis. Calibrated biomarkers, whose uncertainty accurately reflects the true variability, are highly desirable. However, existing evaluations predominantly focus on population-level segmentation accuracy, leaving biomarker-level uncertainty and calibration largely underexplored. Intrinsic anatomical ambiguity and annotation variability are major sources of biomarker variability and cannot be fully eliminated, even when training on a single annotation set. To address this, we propose a probabilistic segmentation framework that explicitly models aleatoric uncertainty with the goal of improving calibration in the biomarker space. The framework disentangles two key sources of uncertainty: 1) detection uncertainty, arising from ambiguous inclusion of basal or apical slices in 2D cardiac MRI, modeled via objectness probabilities; and 2) contour uncertainty, reflecting variability in ventricular boundary delineation, modeled through mean-variance regression of elliptic Fourier descriptors, a compact representation of closed contours. By propagating these uncertainties to derived biomarkers, the proposed method produces more informative and better-calibrated confidence estimates for ejection fraction. Compared to conventional pixel-wise approaches, our framework improves biomarker reliability, particularly in realistic settings dominated by annotation ambiguity and limited domain shift.