Development and internal validation of the thyroid-weight-adjusted neck compression score (NCS) using postmortem...

Neck compression is a diagnostic challenge in forensic pathology, particularly when external signs are minimal. Thyroglobulin (Tg) has been used as a postmortem biomarker, but its reliability remains limited. We evaluated the diagnostic utility of postmortem serum free triiodothyronine (fT₃) and whether adjustment for thyroid weight improves performance. We retrospectively analyzed 130 forensic autopsy cases, including 78 neck-compression cases and 52 controls. Postmortem serum concentrations of fT₃ and Tg were measured, and the thyroid gland was weighed. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of neck compression. Serum fT₃ and log₁₀-transformed Tg levels were significantly higher in the neck-compression group than in the control group. However, stepwise multivariable logistic regression identified only fT₃ (odds ratio [OR]: 1.155, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.096-1.229, p < 0.001) and thyroid weight (OR: 0.935, 95% CI: 0.878-0.986, p = 0.023) as independent predictors. Based on the approximate β ratio of 2: -1, the Neck Compression Score (NCS) was defined as 2 × serum fT₃ [pg/mL] - thyroid weight [g]). The NCS demonstrated good diagnostic performance (area under the curve: 0.811; sensitivity 83.3% and specificity 71.2% at the optimal cutoff value), outperforming fT₃ alone and showing high sensitivity for all 20 cases of strangulation in this study. These results demonstrate that the fT₃ level can be used to screen for neck compression and that adjustment for thyroid weight improves the sensitivity. The NCS may serve as an adjunct and quantitative tool for evaluating neck compression in conjunction with macroscopic findings.