Can rapid evolution allow insects to keep pace with global warming? Reviewing contributions from quantitative...

Global warming is exposing insect populations to environmental conditions that may change faster than they can adapt. Therefore, understanding whether rapid evolution can enable insects to persist in the face of ongoing warming has become a central challenge in evolutionary ecology. Here, we examined recent advances in assessing the potential for and constraints on rapid thermal adaptation. We focus on quantitative genetics, experimental evolution, and environmental gradients as complementary approaches. Quantitative genetic approaches have revealed that thermal traits have sufficient genetic variation to respond to natural selection; however, these responses may be constrained by their underlying genetic architecture. Experimental evolution has demonstrated that rapid adaptive responses are possible; however, laboratory conditions may oversimplify the environmental complexity experienced by natural populations. Environmental gradients can impose differential selection on populations, leading to phenotypic differentiation that can be evaluated through common-garden experiments. Recent evidence further suggests that thermal adaptation under climate warming cannot be fully understood from a single-stressor perspective because interacting selective pressures can reshape both the direction and magnitude of evolutionary responses. To improve predictions of insect persistence under future warming scenarios, it is essential to integrate evolutionary, ecological, and genomic approaches.