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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 17, 2026

Predicting Treatment Response to Image-Guided Therapies Using Machine Learning: An Example for Trans-Arterial Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma
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Accurate surgery time prediction (ASTP) strategy based on artificial intelligence techniques.

Rana Mohamed El-Balka1, Asmaa H Rabie2,3, Ahmed I Saleh2

  • 1Computer and Control Systems Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt. RannaMohamedElbalka@std.mans.edu.eg.

Scientific Reports
|June 12, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Accurate surgical time prediction using the two-layered Accurate Surgical Time Prediction (ASTP) framework improves operating room scheduling. This interpretable AI approach efficiently identifies key features for precise surgery duration estimation.

Keywords:
Histogram Gradient Boosting RegressionLong Short Term MemoryMachine learningOperating roomPrediction TimeSHapley Additive exPlanations

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Informatics
  • Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
  • Operations Research

Background:

  • Efficient operating room scheduling is critical for patient care and resource management.
  • Accurate prediction of surgical duration is a persistent challenge in healthcare operations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate a two-layered Accurate Surgical Time Prediction (ASTP) framework for estimating surgical duration.
  • To enhance operating room scheduling through interpretable and resource-efficient AI models.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Random Forest permutation importance for feature selection.
  • Employed Histogram Gradient Boosting Regression (HGBR) on optimized feature subsets (TOP-K) and compared with ANNs and recurrent models.
  • Validated the framework on real-world (Nile Hospital) and public (MOVER) operating room datasets.

Main Results:

  • HGBR achieved the best performance on the Nile Hospital dataset (MAE: 8.89 min, RMSE: 19.5 min, R-squared: 0.26) using only four features.
  • On the MOVER dataset, HGBR showed strong predictive behavior, with optimal subset performance at TOP-7.
  • The ASTP framework demonstrated resource efficiency and interpretability, outperforming other models with reduced feature complexity.

Conclusions:

  • The ASTP framework offers an effective, interpretable, and efficient solution for surgical time prediction.
  • This approach supports intelligent operating room scheduling and has potential for hospital decision-making integration.
  • Feature importance analysis combined with regression models significantly improves surgical duration prediction accuracy.