FuturePall: Forecasting the specialized inpatient palliative care in Germany based on demographic trends and...

Demographic aging poses a significant challenge for specialized inpatient palliative care (SIPC). In the German healthcare system, SIPC is defined as hospital-based multi-professional care delivered through dedicated palliative units, consultation services, or complex care on general wards. To inform future resource allocation, this study predicts the demand for SIPC in Germany up to 2035, specifically examining the impact of shifting population structures on hospital-based palliative service utilization.

We analyzed baseline utilization data from the 2021 Trinovis Database, which aggregates mandatory structural and performance reports from German hospitals submitted to the Federal Joint Committee (G-BA). Specialized inpatient palliative care (SIPC) was defined using specific Operation and Procedure (OPS) codes. By applying these age-, gender-, and region-specific utilization rates to population projections provided by the German Federal Statistical Office, we forecasted the annual demand for SIPC from the 2021 baseline through the target year of 2035.

Germany's adult population is expected to decline slightly by 2035, but the proportion of individuals aged 65 years and older will increase. SIPC cases are projected to rise from 108,645 in 2021 to 119,923 by 2035, reflecting a growth rate of 0.7% annually. The proportion of SIPC cases involving patients aged 65 years and older will increase. Regional disparities will persist, with varying growth rates in different federal states.

The "FuturePall" study forecasts a rising demand for SIPC in Germany due to demographic shifts, particularly among older adults. Policymakers must plan for these changes by allocating resources, enhancing infrastructure, and adapting healthcare strategies to meet the evolving needs of an aging population. Future research should explore the impact of non-demographic factors on SIPC demand.