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Lake sediment heatwaves under global warming
R Iestyn Woolway1, Haoran Shi1, Zeli Tan2
1School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Wales.
Nature Geoscience
|June 15, 2026
Summary
Lake sediment heatwaves are more persistent than surface heatwaves. Future warming will intensify these events, increasing greenhouse gas emissions and impacting freshwater ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Freshwater Ecology
- Climate Change Science
- Geochemistry
Background:
- Rising global temperatures are causing unprecedented heatwaves in lake surface waters.
- The impacts of these heatwaves on lake sediment thermal regimes and biogeochemical processes remain poorly understood.
- Lake sediments play a critical role in regulating ecosystem functions and greenhouse gas emissions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a global assessment of historical and projected lake sediment heatwaves.
- To analyze the characteristics (duration, intensity, frequency, timing) of sediment heatwaves worldwide.
- To understand the potential consequences for freshwater ecosystems under future climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily simulated lake sediment temperatures for historical (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) periods.
- Employed three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 3-7.0, SSP 5-8.5) for future climate projections.
- Analyzed sediment heatwave characteristics across 41,499 representative lakes globally.
Main Results:
- Lake sediment heatwaves are generally more persistent and frequent than lake surface heatwaves.
- Sediment heatwaves exhibit a temporal lag compared to surface conditions, particularly in pelagic zones.
- Future projections indicate a substantial intensification of sediment heatwaves, especially under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario.
Conclusions:
- Increased frequency and intensity of sediment heatwaves may exacerbate methane production and sediment respiration.
- These findings underscore the critical need to incorporate sediment heatwaves into freshwater ecosystem management and climate adaptation strategies.
- Understanding sediment heatwaves is crucial for mitigating the impacts of climate change on global freshwater resources.
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