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Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm
Published on: December 9, 2012
Climate-adaptive and low-carbon multi-objective water resources optimization in arid oasis cities
Hejing Shao1,2, Fulong Chen1,2, Liutianjiao Hong1,2,3
1College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China.
Iscience
|June 15, 2026
Summary
Climate change intensifies water scarcity in arid regions like Shihezi City. This study projects declining river runoff and offers optimal water resource strategies for sustainable, low-carbon development.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Water Resource Management
Background:
- Arid regions face increasing water supply-demand imbalances exacerbated by climate change and low-carbon development goals.
- Shihezi City, Xinjiang, serves as a case study for understanding these challenges in an oasis environment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project basin-scale runoff under future climate scenarios using advanced modeling.
- To develop a multi-objective water resource optimization framework balancing competing demands.
- To evaluate different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for their impact on water resources and carbon emissions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data to drive a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for runoff projection.
- Integrated the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-III) with the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (CRITIC-TOPSIS) for multi-objective optimization.
- Considered key objectives: water shortage, economic benefits, pollutant emissions, and water-use carbon emissions.
Main Results:
- Projected a general decline in Manas River Basin runoff, with significant reductions anticipated in September.
- Indicated substantial water scarcity in Shihezi City by 2030.
- Identified optimal schemes: SSP1-2.6 excels in water conservation and carbon reduction; SSP2-4.5 offers a balance between economic development and environmental protection; SSP5-8.5 yields higher economic benefits but increases environmental pressure.
Conclusions:
- The study provides crucial insights into future water availability and scarcity in arid oasis cities.
- The developed optimization framework supports efficient water resource allocation and promotes low-carbon water utilization strategies.
- Findings aid policymakers in navigating the complexities of water management under climate change and sustainable development imperatives.
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