Climatic drivers and niche dynamics: Modeling the current and future habitats of Prionailurus bengalensis in China

The leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) is an ecologically significant class II-protected species in China. Using an ensemble species distribution model, niche dynamics analysis, and environmental similarity assessments, we evaluated climate risks to this species. Currently, suitable habitat covers 16.17% of China, primarily in the hilly southeast and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, with temperature seasonality and slope as key drivers. Future projections indicate stable core areas, northward expansion, local contraction, and a northward shift of the distribution centroid. Niche dynamics show high similarity (0.89-0.91) between future and current niches, suggesting limited range expansion. Nevertheless, over 80% of the current habitat is projected to experience high climatic novelty, introducing conservation uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose a climate-adaptive framework focused on enhancing habitat connectivity, mitigating fragmentation, and implementing preventive measures in human-wildlife conflict zones, thereby supporting core habitat identification, corridor planning, and adaptive strategy formulation.