Intimate partner violence victimisation before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Manitoba, Canada: a time...

Intimate partner violence (IPV) represents a serious public health concern. Reports on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on IPV are inconsistent.

To describe trends in justice identified intimate partner violence (JIIPV) victimisation rates in Manitoba, Canada before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic overall and by key sociodemographic characteristics.

We used province-wide criminal justice data of Manitoba residents aged 18-64 years. We calculated monthly incidence rates of JIIPV from March 2018 to March 2023, overall and by sex, age, marital status, immigration status, rurality and neighbourhood income. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to compare observed and expected monthly JIIPV incidence rates, accounting for autocorrelation and seasonality. We distinguished the following periods: pre-COVID-19 (March 2018 to February 2020); COVID-19 period, subdivided into early (March 2020, when the lockdown began, to July 2020) and late (August 2020 to January 2022) and post-COVID-19 (February 2022, when the restrictions were lifted, to March 2023).

There were 43,745 JIIPV incidents in the study period. The incidence of JIIPV was 8.72 per 1000 person-years before COVID-19, 9.45 during the COVID-19 period and 9.62 in the post-COVID-19 period. ITS analysis shows that in the early COVID-19 period the level of JIIPV dropped 18.3% immediately with the lockdown in March 2020, followed by a rebound and peak in July 2020 (11.87 per 1000 person-years), after which rates returned to expected levels. JIIPV rates were higher across all periods among women, young adults, those without a spouse, non-immigrants, living in rural areas and in poor neighbourhoods.

JIIPV rates were temporarily disrupted at the onset of the COVID-19 lockdown, rebounded in the subsequent 3 months and returned to pre-existing trends. Higher-risk groups showed the sharpest changes in the early COVID-19 period with a sustained upward trajectory in later periods.