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Spatial concordance patterns of breast and thyroid cancer based on burden inequalities and related risk factors
Li Yuan Wei1, Li Da Liao1, Kai Wang1
1Department of Head and Neck Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Background:
Both breast cancer (BC) and thyroid cancer (TC) are the most common malignancies, particularly for female patients. A well-established bidirectional association exists between them. However, the distribution of spatial concordance patterns remains incompletely elucidated. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the global burden and spatial concordance patterns of BC and TC, and identify the population-level exposure factors associated with the burden of these two cancers.
Methods:
By utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study and GLOBOCAN 2022, we examined the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2022. They were then classified into three distinct spatial concordance patterns according to different levels of incidence and mortality. An XGBoost prediction model was used to evaluate the association between country-level exposure profiles and BC-related DALYs, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were used to quantify the contribution of each feature.
Results:
Globally, from 1990 to 2022, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC increased with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 1.25%, while BC ASIR increased with an EAPC of 0.38%. Spatial analysis identified 3 distinct spatial concordance patterns: consistent areas, BC-dominant areas and TC-dominant areas. Machine learning identified low physical activity and a diet high in red meat as the strongest ecological predictors of BC-related DALYs, while high body-mass index was a major predictor for TC-related DALYs globally.
Conclusions:
The comorbidity of BC and TC is a global health issue, with significant demographic and regional diversity. The identified spatial concordance patterns and population-level associated exposure risk factors underscore the necessity for tailored public health policies.
