Predictors of Loss to Long-Term Follow-up After Shoulder Surgery

Loss to follow-up is among the most important sources of bias in clinical research. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with a failure to complete a 2-year follow-up after shoulder surgery. We hypothesized that older patients would demonstrate higher follow-up rates and that patients who underwent instability surgery would have lower follow-up rates.

A retrospective chart review was conducted on 1,028 consecutive patients who underwent shoulder surgery performed by a single surgeon between 2017 and 2022. All patients were contacted by the surgeon via telephone, text message, and email at 2 years postoperatively. Variables analyzed included demographic characteristics, insurance status, surgical procedure type, Social Deprivation Index (SDI), and distance from the surgical site to home. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which factors were associated with 2-year follow-up.

Of the 1,028 patients, 507 (49%) completed a 2-year follow-up. The mean patient age was 51 years, 585 patients (57%) were male, and 443 patients (43%) were female. Ninety-four percent of patients were White. Patients who completed follow-up were older (mean age, 53 compared with 49 years; p < 0.001), more likely to have undergone an arthroplasty, and more often insured by Medicare. Loss to follow-up was associated with instability surgery, Medicaid or Workers' Compensation insurance, and missing preoperative visual analog scale (VAS) pain scores. SDI scores and distance from the surgical site were not significant predictors. Age was a covariate of both surgery type and insurance status. In the multivariable model, younger age (odds ratio [OR], 0.99; p < 0.001) and missing VAS scores (OR, 1.51; p = 0.001) independently predicted loss to follow-up, whereas current alcohol use (OR, 0.74; p = 0.024) was associated with lower odds of loss to follow-up.

Older age emerged as the most significant predictor of follow-up adherence. Older patients, often undergoing arthroplasty and covered by Medicare, were more likely to complete follow-up. These findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to improve follow-up rates among younger patients, particularly those undergoing instability surgeries, as well as patients with Medicaid and Workers' Compensation insurance.

Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.