Investigating experiential effects in online chess using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis

The presence or absence of winner-loser effects is a widely discussed phenomenon across both sports and psychology research. Investigation of such effects is often hampered by the limited availability of data. Online chess has exploded in popularity in recent years and provides vast amounts of data which can be used to explore this question. With a hierarchical Bayesian regression model, we carefully investigate the presence of such experiential effects in online chess. Using a large quantity of online chess data, we see little evidence for experiential effects that are consistent across all players, with some individual players showing some evidence for such effects. Given the challenging temporal nature of this data, we discuss several methods for assessing the suitability of our model and carefully check its validity.