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Rising tides: Unveiling the spatial and temporal evolution of sea level rise under climate change
Bing Liang1,2, Guoqing Shi3, Yuxuan Zhu4
1Business School, Wuxi Taihu University, Wuxi, China.
Plos One
|June 17, 2026
Summary
Global sea level rise is accelerating due to thermal expansion and ice melt. Coastal regions like China
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Environmental Science
- Geophysics
Background:
- Global climate change is driving significant sea level rise (SLR).
- Understanding regional disparities and drivers of SLR is crucial for adaptation.
- Previous studies often lack a multi-scale, integrated approach.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of sea level rise across global, regional (China's coast), and local (Shanghai) scales.
- To identify and quantify the primary drivers of observed and projected SLR.
- To provide a quantitative basis for place-based adaptation strategies in delta cities.
Main Methods:
- Synthesized data from IPCC AR6 and NASA sea level projection models.
- Applied the Theil-Sen Median Method and Mann-Kendall Test for trend analysis (2030-2100).
- Utilized hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) for spatial clustering of SLR impacts.
Main Results:
- Confirmed a statistically significant global SLR trend driven by thermal expansion and cryospheric melt.
- Identified accelerated SLR in China's coastal waters (South and East China Seas) due to oceanic and riverine factors.
- Revealed exacerbated relative SLR in Shanghai, driven by land subsidence and local hydrodynamics, showing distinct spatial patterns.
Conclusions:
- Integrated analysis of global, regional, and local factors provides a comprehensive understanding of SLR.
- Findings highlight the need for tailored adaptation strategies in vulnerable delta cities like Shanghai.
- The study supports evidence-based risk assessment and anticipatory governance for compound sea level risks.
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