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A virtual water-driven model for tracing environmental burden transfers through the multi-element nexus in the Pearl
Zhentong Wu1, Kun Wu1, Weijian Yan1
1School of Ecology, Environment and Ocean, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
Abstract:
Synergistic pressures for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and nitrogen-phosphorus pollution associated with water resources are intensifying continuously. This trend poses potential challenges of multi-element coupling and overlapping environmental burdens for regional ecosystems. To reveal the transmission mechanisms underlying the environmental effects of water resource utilization, this study developed a virtual water-based environmental load transfer model. In this model, structural path analysis and betweenness centrality analysis were integrated to trace multi-level transmission pathways and identify key sectors and cities in the network. In addition, effect decomposition methods were applied to quantify the amplification and mitigation effects of environmental pressures associated with virtual water transfer. The Pearl River Delta is selected as the study area. The results indicated that the manufacturing sectors served as the primary bearer of water-associated energy consumption and carbon emissions. In contrast, the service sectors functioned as the dominant driver of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution generation and transmission. Virtual water flows from agriculture and supply sectors to manufacturing amplified regional energy consumption and carbon emission burdens by 32%, forming a pronounced water-energy-carbon synergistic transmission pattern. In addition, virtual water flows from service sectors to manufacturing and construction strengthened the co-migration of nitrogen and phosphorus, contributing 48% of total nitrogen-phosphorus transfer. The results provide analytical insights into the cross-sectoral and cross-regional interactions within water-energy-carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus systems, contributing to a better understanding of sustainable management in regional resource-environment systems.
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