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Related Experiment Videos

Modeling Systemic Risk Propagation in Public Assembly Fire Accidents: A Causal Network Approach Based on Apriori

Xinyu Hua1,2, Kexin Zhang1,2, Guirong Zhang1,2

  • 1School of Public Administration, Central South University, Changsha, People's Republic of China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|June 18, 2026
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a Fire Accident Causation Complex Network Model (FACCNM) to analyze fire risks in public assembly buildings. Key factors like unauthorized design changes significantly increase fire accident risks, necessitating proactive safety management.

Keywords:
accident chaincausation analysiscomplex network analysisfire accidentpublic assembly occupancy

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Area of Science:

  • Fire safety engineering
  • Complex systems analysis
  • Risk management

Background:

  • Public assembly occupancies face fire risks from institutional failures, human behavior, and physical hazards.
  • Linear analysis methods are insufficient for understanding complex, systemic fire causation.
  • A need exists for advanced models to analyze fire accident dynamics in high-density public environments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a Fire Accident Causation Complex Network Model (FACCNM) for identifying critical factors and causal chains in fire incidents.
  • To analyze 185 official investigation reports of major fire incidents in China (1998-2020).
  • To provide actionable insights for improving fire risk governance and shifting towards preventive control.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of the Apriori algorithm, complex network analysis, and the 24 Model.
  • Development of the Fire Accident Causation Complex Network Model (FACCNM).
  • Analysis of 185 official fire investigation reports from China.

Main Results:

  • Identified "unauthorized design change" and "renovation with flammable materials" as frequent and structurally central factors in fire risk propagation.
  • Revealed the highest-risk causal chain: "Absence of fire audit/acceptance → unauthorized design change".
  • Demonstrated how institutional oversight failures can trigger behavioral and material vulnerabilities.

Conclusions:

  • The FACCNM effectively identifies key fire accident contributors and high-risk causal chains.
  • Findings support prioritizing interventions, targeted audits, and proactive regulatory strategies for fire risk governance.
  • The study advocates for a shift from reactive fire response to proactive fire safety management, particularly in public assembly settings.