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Published on: April 17, 2017
Comparative machine learning modeling of resting energy expenditure estimation in mechanically ventilated children
Chenyu Li1, Zhiyuan Zhu1, Shilin Wang1
1Department of Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease and Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Insights
Machine learning models accurately predict resting energy expenditure (REE) in children post-cardiac surgery, outperforming traditional methods. This aids in optimizing nutritional support for better recovery outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric critical care medicine
- Biomedical engineering
- Nutritional science
Background:
- Optimal nutrition is crucial for pediatric recovery after cardiac surgery.
- Metabolic demands exhibit significant inter-individual variability.
- Accurate assessment of resting energy expenditure (REE) is essential for tailored nutritional plans.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models for predicting postoperative REE in children undergoing cardiac surgery.
- To identify key factors influencing REE in this patient population.
- To compare the performance of ML models against conventional predictive equations.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 278 children who underwent indirect calorimetry (IC) post-cardiac surgery.
- Training nine ML algorithms to predict REE using clinical and demographic data.
- Assessing model agreement with measured REE using Bland-Altman analysis and SHAP for interpretability.
Main Results:
- ML models demonstrated competitive accuracy, with the best models achieving an R-squared of 0.64.
- The root mean square error (RMSE) for ML models ranged from 226 to 281 kcal/d, comparable to conventional equations.
- Key predictors of REE included weight, age, height, preoperative albumin, CK-MB, vasoactive inotropic score, CPB time, LVEDD Z-score, gender, and NT-proBNP.
Conclusions:
- Developed ML models show promise in predicting REE in pediatric cardiac surgery patients.
- Certain ML models outperformed traditional equations in estimating postoperative REE.
- These findings support the use of ML for personalized nutritional management, improving metabolic response to surgical stress.
Objective:
Nutrition status is vital for children's recovery following cardiac surgery, with substantial inter-individual variability in metabolic demands. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models of postoperative resting energy expenditure (REE) by analysing the influential factors.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed children who underwent indirect calorimetry (IC) for valid REE measurements within 4 to 24 h after cardiac surgery between January 2021 and December 2022 at our center. Nine ML algorithms were trained to predict REE. Bland-Altman analysis assessed agreement with measured REE, and SHAP was used for population-level interpretation and a representative patient case.
Results:
A total of 278 mechanically ventilated children were analyzed. REE measured by IC ranged from 387 to 2642 kcal/d (715 [550, 964]). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the ML models ranged from 226 (95% CI: 184-267) to 281 (95% CI: 225-344) kcal/d, while the range for conventional equations was 249 (95% CI: 215-287) to 282 (95% CI: 252-315) kcal/d. Regularized linear models achieved the highest R2 of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.49-0.76). The top 10 most important variables associated with REE in the optimal model are weight, age, height, preoperative serum albumin, preoperative CK-MB, vasoactive inotropic score (VIS), CPB time, postoperative LVEDD Z-score, gender, and postoperative NT-proBNP.
Conclusions:
This study developed ML models to predict REE in children after cardiac surgery, with some models outperforming conventional equations. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning to optimize postoperative nutritional management by accurately capturing the non-linear metabolic response to surgical stress.
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