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Multidisciplinary Approach to Obesity Management: A Case Report

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Prospective Association Between Weight Variability and Subsequent Long-Term Weight Loss in the CALERIE Study.

Branislav Jovanovic¹, Simar Singh², Fengqing Zhang¹

¹Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.)

|June 19, 2026

Summary

Higher short-term weight variability predicts less weight loss in adults without obesity. Understanding weight variability may inform future weight management strategies.

Keywords:

weight change weight fluctuation weight loss weight maintenance weight variability

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Area of Science:

Obesity Research
Metabolic Health
Behavioral Science

Background:

Short-term weight variability (WV) is linked to adverse weight outcomes in various populations.
Previous research indicates WV predicts weight gain and reduced weight loss in specific adult and toddler groups.
The CALERIE study provides a unique dataset to examine WV in adults without obesity undergoing caloric restriction.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the impact of naturally occurring short-term weight variability (WV) on subsequent weight loss.
To analyze WV's predictive role in individuals without obesity during a 2-year caloric restriction intervention.
To extend prior findings on WV to a non-obese cohort in the CALERIE study.

Main Methods:

143 participants underwent a 25% caloric restriction for 2 years.
Weight variability (WV) was calculated using the root-mean-squared-error of weights over the initial 12 weeks.
Multilevel models assessed WV's association with weight loss at multiple time points, adjusting for covariates and performing sensitivity analyses.

Main Results:

Higher short-term weight variability (WV) was significantly associated with less subsequent weight loss at 6 months (B = -0.38, p = 0.003).
The association between WV and reduced weight loss appeared to extend through the first year of the study.
No significant interaction between time and WV was observed, suggesting a consistent effect.

Conclusions:

Short-term weight variability (WV) is a predictor of lower subsequent weight loss in adults without obesity.
Understanding the biobehavioral mechanisms underlying WV is crucial for future research.
WV may offer insights into long-term weight stability and inform clinical interventions for weight management.