Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Cost Trade-Offs of Renewable Feedstocks for Methyl Methacrylate Production

Replacing fossil feedstocks with renewable, drop-in intermediates offers a rapid defossilization strategy while exploiting existing infrastructure. This study quantifies the cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas emissions and raw material costs for methyl methacrylate (MMA) via a representative ethylene ("C2") route using fossil, biomass, and direct-air-capture CO₂ feedstocks. Results suggest that conventional MMA emits 3.43 kg CO₂-eq kg^-1. Switching to biomass or CO₂ feedstocks yields negative emissions of -0.79 and -1.13 kg CO₂-eq kg^-1, respectively. Uncertainty analysis demonstrates -0.88 to -0.40 kg CO₂-eq kg^-1 (biomass) and -1.23 to -1.03 kg CO₂-eq kg^-1 (CO₂). Raw-material costs rise from $0.65 kg^-1 (fossil) to $1.52 kg^-1 (biomass) and $2.66 kg^-1 (CO₂), driven by renewable ethylene and formaldehyde. The green premium required for cost parity with fossil fuel-based MMA is $0.31-1.04 kg^-1 (biomass) and $1.27-2.12 kg^-1 (CO₂), equivalent to a 16-52% and 63-106% markup. Propagated to consumer products, the highest premium inflates prices by <15% for an acrylic sheet and <1% for higher-value items (rear car lamps; LCD televisions). Eliminating the premium requires carbon prices of $72-296 tn^-1 CO₂ (biomass) and $269-512 tn^-1 CO₂ (CO₂). These results position biomass drop-ins as a near-term strategy, while CO₂-derived options need further improvements to reach cost parity.