Opioid Overdose Death Prediction with Graph Neural Networks

The opioid crisis has severely impacted Ohio, with overdose death rates surpassing national averages and disproportionately affecting rural and Appalachian regions. Accurately predicting county-level opioid overdose (OD) deaths is critical for timely intervention but remains challenging due to the wide differences in opioid OD deaths between large and small counties. We propose a Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network (ST-GNN) framework that integrates graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture spatial relationships between counties and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal dynamics. Using quarterly OD death data from Q1 2017 to Q2 2023 for 88 Ohio counties, we incorporate a nine-dimensional dynamic feature set, including naloxone administration events and high-risk opioid prescribing, along with a static Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) index. Compared to traditional statistical models and temporal deep learning baselines, our ST-GNN demonstrates superior performance, particularly in larger counties, while a classification-based strategy improves predictions for small counties, leading to more stable and reliable results. Our findings emphasize the need for spatial-temporal modeling and customized training to enhance public health decision-making in addressing the opioid crisis.