The impact of emergency policy (contingency plans) on regional emergency logistics response capacity in China

Emergency policies and contingency plans serve as critical institutional arrangements for enhancing regional emergency response capacity, yet systematic causal evidence regarding their actual effectiveness remains limited. This study aims to empirically assess the impact of emergency policies on emergency logistics response capacity, taking the promulgation of China's National Master Plan for Public Health Emergency Response in 2006 as a quasi-natural experiment.

Utilizing panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China spanning 2005-2022, we employed a staggered difference-in-differences approach. A cosine similarity-based text quantification method was applied to measure policy content consistency between provincial emergency policies and the central master plan. A multidimensional indicator system was constructed to assess regional emergency logistics response capacity, and its relationship with policy consistency was analyzed.

Policy consistency exhibits a foundational supporting effect: low consistency is generally associated with weak response capacity, whereas high consistency alone does not guarantee strong capacity. The implementation of emergency policies led to an average increase in emergency logistics response capacity of 0.0137 units, representing an approximate 47% improvement, a result robust to multiple checks. The policy effect showed a time lag, becoming statistically significant only in the third year post-implementation. Pronounced regional heterogeneity was observed: the effect was significant in eastern China but not in central and western regions; regions with higher policy consistency or higher initial response capacity benefited more substantially.

This study advances emergency logistics research by integrating policy text quantification, dynamic capacity decomposition, and causal inference. The findings offer empirical evidence for optimizing regional emergency management policies and fostering cross-regional coordination, with practical insights for developing countries facing analogous challenges. The identified time lag and regional disparities highlight the need for sustained institutional building and differentiated policy strategies.